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Predicting where runoff‐generated debris flows might occur during rainfall on steep, recently burned terrain is challenging. Studies of mass‐movement processes in unburned areas indicate that event locations are well‐predicted by rainfall anomaly,R*, in which peak observed rainfall is normalized by local rainfall climatology. Here, we use remote and field methods to map debris flows triggered within the 2020 Dolan Fire burn area in coastal California, demonstrate that a short‐durationR*metric predicts debris‐flow occurrence more effectively than absolute peak intensity or longer‐duration rainfall metrics, and show that incorporating anR*criterion into an existing debris‐flow likelihood model can reduce false positive predictions and improve accuracy. We testR* at three other climatically distinct fires in California, demonstrating its utility for mapping likely debris‐flow locations in different climates. We also consider howR*can benefit postfire debris‐flow prediction given recent increases in climatological variability within individual burn perimeters. 

Biological invasions are profoundly altering Earth’s ecosystems, but generalities about the effects of nonnative species on the diversity and productivity of native communities have been elusive. This lack of generality may reflect the limited spatial and temporal extents of most previous studies. Using >5 million tree measurements across eastern US forests from 1995 to 2023, we quantified temporal trends in tree diversity and biomass. We then analyzed community-level changes in native tree diversity and biomass in relation to nonnative tree invasion and native species colonization. Across the entire eastern United States, native tree species richness decreased over time in plots where nonnatives occurred, whereas nonnative species richness and the biomass of both natives and nonnatives increased over time. At the community scale, native richness tended to decline following nonnative invasion, whereas native biomass and richness-independent measures of trait and phylogenetic diversity tended to remain stable. These patterns can be explained by the rarity of the displaced native species and their functional and phylogenetic similarity to native species that survived nonnative invasions. In contrast, native survivors tended to be functionally distinct from nonnative invaders, suggesting an important role for niche partitioning in community dynamics. Colonization by previously absent native species was associated with an increase in native richness (beyond the addition of native colonizers), which contrasts with declines in native richness that tended to follow nonnative invasion. These results suggest a causal role for nonnative species in the native richness decline of invaded communities. 

Abstract This paper is Part II of a two‐part paper that documents the Climate Model version 4X (CM4X) hierarchy of coupled climate models developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Part I of this paper is presented in Griffies et al. (2025a,https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004861). Here we present a suite of case studies that examine ocean and sea ice features that are targeted for further research, which include sea level, eastern boundary upwelling, Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice, Southern Ocean circulation, and North Atlantic circulation. The case studies are based on experiments that follow the protocol of version 6 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis reveals a systematic improvement in the simulation fidelity of CM4X relative to its CM4.0 predecessor, as well as an improvement when refining the ocean/sea ice horizontal grid spacing from the of CM4X‐p25 to the of CM4X‐p125. Even so, there remain many outstanding biases, thus pointing to the need for further grid refinements, enhancements to numerical methods, and/or advances in parameterizations, each of which target long‐standing model biases and limitations. 

Abstract We present the GFDL‐CM4X (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 4X) coupled climate model hierarchy. The primary application for CM4X is to investigate ocean and sea ice physics as part of a realistic coupled Earth climate model. CM4X utilizes an updated MOM6 (Modular Ocean Model version 6) ocean physics package relative to CM4.0, and there are two members of the hierarchy: one that uses a horizontal grid spacing of (referred to as CM4X‐p25) and the other that uses a grid (CM4X‐p125). CM4X also refines its atmospheric grid from the nominally 100 km (cubed sphere C96) of CM4.0–50 km (C192). Finally, CM4X simplifies the land model to allow for a more focused study of the role of ocean changes to global mean climate. CM4X‐p125 reaches a global ocean area mean heat flux imbalance of within years in a pre‐industrial simulation, and retains that thermally equilibrated state over the subsequent centuries. This 1850 thermal equilibrium is characterized by roughly less ocean heat than present‐day, which corresponds to estimates for anthropogenic ocean heat uptake between 1870 and present‐day. CM4X‐p25 approaches its thermal equilibrium only after more than 1000 years, at which time its ocean has roughlymoreheat than its early 21st century ocean initial state. Furthermore, the root‐mean‐square sea surface temperature bias for historical simulations is roughly 20% smaller in CM4X‐p125 relative to CM4X‐p25 (and CM4.0). We offer themesoscale dominance hypothesisfor why CM4X‐p125 shows such favorable thermal equilibration properties. 

In this study we investigate how students watch and learn from a set of calculus instructional videos focused on reasoning about quantities needed to graph the function modeling the instantaneous speed of a car. Using pre- and post-video problems, a survey about the students’ sense-making and data about the students’ interactions with the video, we found that many students did not appear to make significant gains in their learning and that students appeared to not recognize their own moments of confusion or lack of understanding. These results highlight potential issues related to learning from instructional videos. 

Growing interest in “flipped” classrooms has made video lessons an increasingly prominent component of post-secondary mathematics curricula. This format, where students watch videos outside of class, can be leveraged to create a more active learning environment during class. Thus, for very challenging but essential classes in STEM, like calculus, the use of video lessons can have a positive impact on student success. However, relatively little is known about how students watch and learn from calculus instructional videos. This research generates knowledge about how students engage with, make sense of, and learn from calculus instructional videos.